May 21 – Global trade relations are recovering: with a 5.6% increase in 2015, and a 6% increase expected for the 2016-2017 period. The 13th ITA-Prometeia report, “Evolution of foreign trade: areas and sectors,” confirms the good news. Growth at over 5% for three consecutive years hadn’t happened since 2005-2007. The change is even more evident when compared to the expected trend for world GDP, similarly expansive, but at rates that are half of those for trade. Already in 2014, mature markets returned to grow, with North America in the lead. The United States remains the main pivot of international trade, with 7.7% growth in imports expected for the current year, and a demand for goods from abroad above the average figure for foreign trade in the 2015-2016 period. Western European markets continue on their path to recovery (with +4.8% annually in the next three years). Mixed signals come instead from the emerging world, affected by China’s 2014 slowdown and lower incomes for big commodity exporters in the forecast period. Latin America and Eastern Europe, given its proximity to the Russian market, are subject to lower growth potential. “The data in the report sees more mature economies perform better than emerging one – commented Riccardo Maria Monti, president of the Italian Trade Agency, at the presentation of the report – We must abandon the emerging / established markets logic, as in absolute terms the most attractive market for growth potential is the United States, with a trade surplus of 25 billion. This is an important market, in which we are already very well positioned, but on which we should refocus our efforts.” (Red / SIP)
